GWB, Master Illusionist?
Mon Oct 03, 2005 at 06:55:34 PM PDT
"Unrealistic optimism may lead people to ignore legitimate risks in their environments and to fail to take measures to offset those risks. False optimism may, for example, lead people to ignore important health habits or to fail to prepare for a likely catastrophic event, such as a flood or an earthquake. Faith in the inherent goodness of one's beliefs and actions may lead a person to trample on the rights and values of others; centuries of atrocities committed in the name of religious and political values bear witness to the liabilities of such faith. If positive illusions foster the use of shortcuts and heuristics for making judgments and decisions, this may lead people to oversimplify complex intellectual tasks and to ignore important sources of information."
Taylor and Brown, 1988, Psychological Bulletin
Sound like anyone you know?
Obama vs Blair - or How to Talk to a Progressive
Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 09:34:46 PM PDT
I recently read Tony Blair's
speech to the Labour Party Conference. It is hard to deny that he is a superb communicator. Therefore, it was interesting to compare his latest speech and other recent speeches at the Labour Party Conference to his progressive supporters with
Senator Obama's speech to his supporters here today.
"Whenever we dumb down the political debate, we lose. A polarized electorate that is turned off of politics, and easily dismisses both parties because of the nasty, dishonest tone of the debate, works perfectly well for those who seek to chip away at the very idea of government because, in the end, a cynical electorate is a selfish electorate." (Obama)
It was these words from Senator Obama that crystallize for me most the difference between the currently out-of-power Democratic Party in the US, and the currently in-power Labour Party in the UK. In both countries, years of conservative government went hand-in-hand with an opposition who could not get their ideas to sound solidly appealing to the general public. However, what New Labour managed to do was:
Actions speak louder than words - Bush on DSM
Tue Jun 07, 2005 at 06:51:31 PM PDT
There have been several
diaries today here regarding the joint Press Conference given by Mr Blair and Mr Bush. I watched the video clip at
dembloggers.com, to watch their physical reactions to the question about the Downing St Minutes. If
55-70 % of our communication is actually non-verbal, then the following observation should give pause for thought:
I was watching the last part of the President's answer:
"And so we worked hard to see if we could figure how to do this peacefully, to put a united front up to Saddam Hussein, so the world speaks. And he ignored the world. Remember, 1441 passed the Security Council unanimously. He made the decision."
The President clearly intends to mean that Saddam was the one making the decision for war. However, fascinatingly I think, at the exact point where Bush says "He made the decision", referring by speech to Saddam, Bush moves his hand to his own chest:
I think this unconscious physical movement tells the viewer a lot about the mendacity of the words themselves, and perhaps confirms the truth of the Downing St Minutes.
More....
Even George Clooney's Dad has read the Downing St Memo!
Mon May 30, 2005 at 05:06:02 PM PDT
Another Op/Ed today containing reference to the
Downing Street Memo comes from Nick Clooney, a regular columnist at the Cincinnati Post and father to a certain handsome George.
Mr Clooney is a Democrat who
ran for 4th District in Kentucky last fall, and has since
been on holiday.
Mr Clooney notes that:
"It is impossible to exaggerate the wide, and widening, gulf between the American attitude on the Iraq war and the view from our friends across the Atlantic. This is the people talking, not the governments.
According to polls, we in this country are about evenly divided on whether we were right or wrong to go to war in Iraq. Not so in Europe. The polls show an enormous majority, sometimes 85 to 15 percent, of people who believe it was a mistake. The numbers have remained constant for two years and more."
more on the flip side...
Christians denounce Bush - Impact of Downing St Memo?
Sat May 21, 2005 at 09:13:40 PM PDT
President Bush made a
commencement speech at the faith-based Calvin College in Michigan today, which sparked controversy to the extent that a third of the faculty of the college took out a full page ad as an
open letter in the local Grand Rapids Press:
"We believe your administration has launched an unjust and unjustified war in Iraq"
The controversy has been quickly covered by the MSM (LA Times, NYT, Washington Post). At the time of writing, the story was also the most-emailed on Yahoo News.
This stirring in the Christian world seems significant. Perhaps those who have been pessimistic lately that recent evidence about the reasons for war has gone unseen should take note. Some of those whose world view is not necessarily evidence-based are taking this evidence to heart.
More speech quotes and discussion after the fold...
49 % of Liberals want creationism taught in schools
Wed May 11, 2005 at 12:12:27 PM PDT
Janet Hook (LA Times)
reports the latest Pew Research study of the America.
What she didn't mention:
Teaching creationism along with evolution in public schools
Oppose Favor
Enterprisers 12% 83%
Social conservatives 28% 62%
Pro-government conservatives 22% 64%
Upbeats 34% 61%
Disaffecteds 22% 60%
Conservative Democrats 33% 46%
Disadvantaged Democrats 36% 50%
Liberals 49% 49%
Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
flip...
The MSM finally nails the other side of the story
Sat Mar 26, 2005 at 03:59:58 PM PDT
The topmost emailed story on Yahoo News right now is:
Docs Say Schiavo Tapes Don't Tell Story
Finally, this has been pointed out to the public that don't already understand this; that coincidences on an edited videotape can be made to engender emotional responses and fool a lot of people.
The public sees fleeting videotaped images of Terri Schiavo, appearing to many to turn toward her mother's voice and smile. They hear what sound like moans and laughter... And often they ask: How could anyone conclude but that she is aware of her surroundings?
...
The answer lies not so much within Schiavo's brain as in the minds of those who observe her.
...
In Schiavo's condition, only the most primitive part of the brain survives. That region, known as the brain stem, merely sustains the vital functions of breathing, heart rate, sleep-wake cycles and primitive reflexes such as coughing and blinking.
...
"You can't take these clips out of the context of examining the individual and seeing a long monitoring film," he says. "They don't give you enough information."
A little too ironic?
Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 02:18:57 AM PDT
If it all finishes as the projections now say:
- The total increase in turnout will have been a couple of million more than in 2000, despite poll workers commenting they have never seen anything like it.
- The only state to have switched parties will be NH. That means Bush will actually have carried less states. I thought the electoral college was supposed to increase representation of small states, not make them irrelevant.
- Taking into account (2) above, without the partisan redistricting, Kerry would have won 271-267.
[editor's note, by dcr22] Took out the stuff about Diebold. Will leave it to the pros...
'Instant Tax Cut' for voting Kerry
Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 12:30:04 PM PDT
This might be useful ammo for convincing people at the last minute (aim for the pocketbook!):
From a recent prediction by PFC Energy:
PFC is forecasting an average U.S. crude price of $43 a barrel in 2005 should Kerry win, compared with $48 a barrel in the event Bush triumphed. It sees $52 on average in the first quarter 2005 under Bush compared with $45 under Kerry.
Let's look at what that means. For the motorist averaging 15 000 miles per annum, in a 30 mpg vehicle, at the current fuel price of around $2.20, that's $1100 a year.
If this prediction holds up, and pump prices fall in line with oil prices, then this would fall to $950 per annum. That's an extra $150.
Gas price is a very good predictor of not only the result of the election, but also the magnitude of the victory, which makes it better than all the qualitative predictors that we have seen lately.
AP headline misleads on terror threat level
Sat Oct 30, 2004 at 02:52:21 PM PDT
An email I just sent to AP:
FAO KATHERINE PFLEGER SHRADER: U.S. Warns on Terror; Alert Stays Orange
Dear Ms Shrader:
Are you aware that your article just posted on Yahoo News has a misleading title? The title suggests that the country is at Orange Alert level, but in the article itself, you state that:
"Most of the United States has been at code yellow, the midpoint of a five-point color-coded warning scale, for much of the year." And the DHS website says it's yellow.
U.S. Warns on Terror; Alert Stays Orange
As your story is one of the current most popular at Yahoo, I suggest you may wish to edit this title to avoid confusion before a close election, in which raising the threat level has been shown to increase support for one party over another.
Best wishes
Argh, some subeditor saw an opportunity here methinks. If s/he was just not reading the article properly, then worse - this sort of thing shouldn't be messed with.
Update [2004-10-30 19:5:56 by dcr22]:Success! The headline on the feed was just changed to "U.S. Warns on Terror; Alert Unchanged"
Another example of how we can help![/UPDATE]
Republican/Democrat brains wired differently.
Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 03:45:31 PM PDT
From
this story on Yahoo, we have the fascinating revelation that Republicans' brains may actually be physiologically different than Democrats:
Nonetheless, some differences appeared between the brain activity of Democrats and Republicans. Take empathy: One Democrat's brain lit up at an image of Kerry "with a profound sense of connection, like a beautiful sunset," Freedman said. Brain activity in a Republican shown an image of Bush was "more interpersonal, such as if you smiled at someone and they smiled back."
And when voters were shown a Bush ad that included images of the Sept. 11 attacks, the amygdala region of the brain -- which lights up for most of us when we see snakes -- illuminated more for Democrats than Republicans. The researchers' conclusion: At a subconscious level, Republicans were apparently not as bothered by what Democrats found alarming.
Thoughts below...
The Madness of King George
Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 11:37:02 AM PDT
Lately, as a Brit is perhaps bound to be, I am struck by some of the irony surrounding the local transfer of power in the US and its relation to what happened to the British Empire. Reading Suskind's NYT magazine
article made it abundantly clear that the current President believes that he is ordained by a Christian God to fight evil on behalf of the people, and is not living in a world divorced from reality as some here in the 'reality-based community' have suggested, but rather understands the reality and discards it as irrelevant to ruling/managing (delete as applicable) the country.
Part of the appeal of America for me, as a professional scientist and secular humanist of British extraction, is its possession of a written constitution (unlike Britain) and the separation of church and state ensconced in the US Constitution. The reverse is true in Britain, where the 'Divine Right of Kings' still technically operates despite its overwhelmingly secular society. The parallels with 'Mad' King George of Britain and the subsequent Independence of the US is being played out again it seems, but the new nation that was born from that time looks ever more like its feudal parent.
America is in real danger of losing the freedom that so many have fought and died for in the history of the US to obviate the ancient submission of the people to a de-facto ruler, driven by mis-appropriated faith and blinded by divine 'truth'. I am hoping that inclusiveness, tolerance, and above all, reason, win on November 2nd. I believe that if more of the Christians on the right heeded Kerry's choice of maxim from last Wednesday, to 'love thy neighbour', then they might truly be voting for someone who does in fact represent the spiritual leader they profess to follow.
It officially can't get any worse - the debt takes on 'myth'ical proportions
Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 02:05:22 AM PDT
Noy only is the deficit the
worst since WWII:
Josh Bolten, head of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said while the 2004 deficit was "unwelcome," the improvement from earlier forecasts was "a clear reflection of our strengthening economy and improving fiscal performance."
but the debt can't legally get any worse:
The U.S. government reached the $7.384 trillion legal limit on how much it can borrow, forcing the Bush administration to ...
...temporarily suspend contributions to a government pension program.
So not only are our children paying for it, but now the seniors are too - and they've already paid!
Question for discussion is - how does one convince the man in the street, who received a $600 tax cut in his pocket, that all of the above costs him several times that in other increased costs? A lot of people only see the cash.
I think it has to be spun around the 'choice' or 'freedom' idea. Bush says by giving you the money back, he is giving you back the choice to spend it as you please. Then point out that you have no choice but to buy gas (at higher prices), healthcare (higher prices) etc etc.
Any other ideas on how to make Average Joe question Bush's assertions?
Favourite laugh-out-loud moment in Debate 3
Thu Oct 14, 2004 at 06:57:30 AM PDT
What was yours? Mine is captured in the grab below, from c-span's 'Podium Watch' replay. It works even better in the video itself, but suffice to say that while GWB was pontificating about how temporary workers should be able to move across the border freely, JFK got this brief incredulous look on his face into the camera, right at the audience, which just said "Can you
believe this guy?!!!".
Loved it. It went out on the major feed as split screen at the time, and I think JFK did great in connecting with the audience in this way, and marginalising Bush.
If you'd like to see the whole action, it happens around 51 minutes and 41 seconds into the coverage.
Have a nice day!
Oxymoron or just moron?
Wed Oct 13, 2004 at 10:43:35 PM PDT
I didn't see anyone else remark on this yet, but I heard the President twice tonight refer to the
'Armies of Compassion'?
Now, I'm no military expert, but I really had no clue what he meant by this. Did he mean that the taxpayer would be spending more money sending platoons of troops across the globe armed with nothing but kind words, and perhaps wicker baskets filled with 'freedom' fairy dust to be flung joyfully at foreigners? Perhaps they will be armed with bullets, but fire them only in order to generate compassion among the poor plebs who live without freedom. In fact, perhaps he is insinuating that it would be compassionate for some armies to kill some of those poor unfortunates who live in other countries.
Please enlighten me if you can help a poor foreigner. I can't decide whether to be pitiful or chilled by this new military paradigm...
And yes, I think Kerry was the President tonight :)
